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John McCain says that the Democratic presidential candidates want to “raise the white flag of surrender” in Iraq by withdrawing our forces before the nation that Bush (almost) built is completed (and as a concrete foundation of Iraqi political progress has yet to set, we’re a long way from polishing the knob on the front door of our New Iraq.)
Unless Barack Obama turns out to be Client 10, he will likely be the Dem’s nominee, and so we can expect to hear a great deal more about him and white flags as November approaches.
To counteract such claims of cowardice, I suggest an addition to the candidate’s iconic exclamation of public empowerment: “Yes we can (win in Iraq.)”
We are the richest country in the world with the best-trained, best-equipped, and most dominating military in the history of man. If we stay in Iraq, if we continue to invest our nation’s financial and human wealth into that desert country on the other side of the globe, if we continue to demonstrate that never-surrender, give-it-all-you-got Donner Party sticktoitiveness that makes America great, then yes we can win in Iraq.
But Barack Obama should go beyond such simple soundbites, and explain what it’s going to cost us to ‘win’ this war (because it ain’t free, even if it still feels that way.)
The answer to that question may be found on the cover of a recently-released book by Linda J. Bilmes and Joseph Stiglitz: The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict
Just as McCain reframes the issue of withdrawal as “surrender,” it is not uncommon for opposition to the war to be spun as a quasi-traitorous failure to support our troops. I have yet to meet anyone who proudly enthuses, “I don’t support our troops!” But soon enough, we can be sure that no American citizen can honestly say such a thing, as we will all be supporting them, as a doubly indebted nation, for decades to come.
The 1991 Persian Gulf War lasted only a month, but the federal government pays out $4.3 billion a year in disability compensation to Gulf War veterans. If the Iraq war follows the same pattern, we can expect that the next generation of Americans will eventually spend $600 billion to look after the Iraq and Afghanistan veterans.
Oil is at an all-time high these days (yes, even adjusted for inflation: screw you 1980!), currently topping off above $110 a barrel. The price was $25 the month we invaded Iraq, in March of 2003.
In our book, we attribute just $5 to $10 of the increase in the cost of a barrel of oil directly to Iraq. But even this modest price increase accounts for a transfer of $300 billion to $800 billion from the pocketbooks of U.S. consumers to oil-producing countries.
Our politics seem more like sporting events: The Republican Elephants against the Democratic Donkeys, with churlish fans hurling invective and lite beer across the stands. But this is no longer about which team is tougher, or who’s willing to throw in the towel (or raise the flag, if I were to stick with the introductory metaphor.) Regardless of your position on the matter, you will be paying for Iraq War for a long time coming.
We’re already committed to a tremendous amount of spending in the decades ahead to pay for this war. There’s little or nothing we can do to avoid those costs. All we can do at this point to keep them from rising further is to withdraw our troops from Iraq as soon as is reasonably possible.
Yes we can win in Iraq. But how much, and how many, are we willing to spend to do it?
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